Climate Change in Vietnam

HCM CITY UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY (HUTECH) FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT & BIOTECHNOLOGY benevolent AND ENVIRONMENT mood CHANGE CONTENTS I. CLIMATE CHANGE I. 1. nursery fumble liberation I. 2. Manifestation of modality change in Vietnam II. clashing OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems II. 2. Impacts on the thriftiness II. 2. 1. Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture II. 2. 2. Impacts on the energy vault of heaven II. 3. Impacts on slightly opposite economic sectors II. 4. Impacts on society I. CLIMATE CHANGE I. 1.Greenho utilisation gas firing Greenhouse gas emission (CO2, CH4, N2O) has continuously amplify glob all in ally since the industrial revolution, oddly due to humanss activities including the exploitation of fossils for industrial and rustic production and transportation. Greenhouse gas accumulated eachwhere an extended train causes a greenhouse effect, which raises the planetary temperature. The level of greenho use gas per mortal in Vietnam is lower than the worlds amount level (Table 1. ), except Vietnam is hotshot of the countries that is most touch on by climate change. Table 1. 1. Estimated greenhouse gas emmission level per person UnitTonsofCO2 analogous/person Year 2004 Year 2010 America * 20 21,6 Europe * 11 11 The worlds average * 5 khina * 4 Vietnam ** 1,5 1,6 root system(*) humorChange101UnderstandingandResponding toGlobal humourChange,2007 (**)EstimationinVietnamInitial interior(a)CommunicationUnderthe fall inNationsFrameworkConventiononClimatechange,MoNRE,2003Vietnam conducted a greenhouse gas emission inventory in 1993 (The first national inventory notice, 2004), in 1998 (Greenhouse gas emmision inventory report, 2008) and in 2000 (The south national notice, 2010). The inventory allow for showed that the total greenhouse gas emission in 2000 was 150. 9 gazillion lots of eq. CO2. The emission structure has changed however compargond to the previous years. The pro portion of emission compared to the total figure has increased in the sectors of waste, energy and industrial processes ( diagram 1. ). Diagram 1. 1. The evolution of GHG emission of each sector in 1993,1998,2000 The inventory resultant role in 2000 showed that agriculture was the biggest source of emission with 65 meg tons of eq. CO2 ( account statement for 43. 1%), which was followed by the energy sector (35%). But the country emission proportion compared to the total emission issued against the previous 2 inventories. GHG emission inventory re oceanrch in sectors showed that only forestry and dirt use restructuring were able to absorb and reduce CO2.CO2 absorption by the forests and other kinds of land coverage was 75. 74 million tons of eq. CO2, and by soil 90. 85 million tons of eq. CO2. Totally, GHG emission from agriculture and land use restructuring was 15. 1 million tons, accounting for 10% of the total emission. There is much scientific evidence showing that the earth is heating up due to increase GHG emission and global climate change is taking place quick and with significent furbish up. Thus, if GHG emission continues to increase, the electrical shocks of climate change testament be more serious.Countries, that come long coastlines and are located near the equator like Vietnam forget suck up to face great impacts from climate change. I. 2. Manifestation of climate change in Vietnam Climate change is taking place and cause great changes, which are shown in extreme and queer weather phenomena experienced recently much(prenominal) as increase temperature, strong storm, heavy rains, floods, drought, and rising ocean level etc. Temperature Over the last 50 years (1958-2007), the annual average temperature in Vietnam increased from betwixt 0. 0. 7C. The temperature in winter lift rapid than that in summer and the temperature in the north rose faster than that in the south. In 2007, the annual average temperature in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang were higher than the average figures in 1931 to 1940 by 0. 8 -1. 3C and higher than that in 1991 2000 by 0. 4- 0. 5C (Source The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). Rainfall In each region, there was no big change in the annual average rainwater in each period and in contrastive locations.However the annual rainfall reduced in the Northern climatic zones and increased in the Southern climatic zones. The national average rainfall over the last 50 years (1958 2007) reduced by 2%. However, rainfall pattern within the year changed with a controvert trend increasing in the rainy eon and reducing in the teetotal out assuage. chilliness air The number of cold spells that affected Vietnam reduced remarkably over the past 2 decades. However, unusual manifestation appeared more regularly.The latest one was a chilly cold spells that lasted for 30 days in January and February in 2008 in the Northern region. (Source The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). Storm In the recent past 5 to 6 decades, the frequence of tropic cyclones on the East sea increased by 0. 4 storm per decade the frequency of tropical cyclones affected Vietnam increased by 0. 2 storm per decade in recent years, high strong suit storms appeared more regularly. The storms orbit trended southward and the stormy season ended later. Many storms travelled unusually and irregularly. Source Vietnams second notice to the UN Convention Frame work on Climate Change, MONRE, 2010). ocean level Monitoring data at Marine Observatories along Vietnams coastline showed that the average rise in sea level was 3mm/year (from 1993 2008) homogeneous to the worlds average rate of increase. Over the last 50 years, sea level at Hon Dau marine observatory rose by 20cm (Source The National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, MONRE, 2008). II. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIO-ECONOMY Climate change is one o f the biggest challenges for human beings in the 21st century.Climate change will cause serious impacts on production, life and environment globally. Increasing temperature and rising sea level causing flooding together with saline water sources that negatively affects agriculture will increase industrial risks and negatively impact future socio-economic systems. II. 1. Impacts on ecosystems sea water rise, more high-intensity natural disasters, sediment levels and saline level increases all feature impacts on natural ecosystems. Rising sea level accelerates the landslide rate in the coastal areas and river mouths.It leads to the disappearance of mangrove forest such(prenominal) as the mangrove forest east of the Ca Mau cape, which is the natural home ground of many species. Rising sea level besides floods the coastal areas, which has an impact on the growth of mangrove trees, especially those that are able to prevail silt banks and thus raise the level of the coastal areas, such as Avicennia, Sonneratia alba. Due to the impacts of climate change, natural forest ecosystems such as the dry dipterocarp forests, verdurous forests and deciduous forests have all reduced in acreage.The boundary of central forests and secondary forests can alike change as a result. The dry dipterocarp forests will expand to the north deciduous forests of drought tolerant plants will grow more strongly. High temperature can also lead to the experimental extinction of some kinds of fauna and flora. Some kinds of plants such as aloe forest, textured wood and siadora Vietnamese, etc, can become extinct. Hundreds of animal species and plants have to change their habitats and life spans to lodge to climate change. II. 2. Impacts on the economyClimate change has sizably impacts on some economic sectors, which mediately put pressure on the environment II. 2. 1. Impacts on agriculture and aquaculture Rising sea water and salt water onslaught in the Mekong River Delta and some ar eas in the rubicund River Delta, which are major rural hubs, threatens agricultural production and national nutrient security. Salinity of 1 has intruded landward by 50-60 km and salinity 4 (harmful to plants) has intruded by 30-40 km from the river mouth. Source The Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, 2008). The Mekong River Delta, which has 1,77 million ha of saline land, accounting for 45% of the total area, would be the most affected in the country. If sea level rises 30 cm, salinity of major branches of the Mekong River Delta would intrude by a further 10km. ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM Accordingtotheclimatechangescenerio,ifseawater risesby1m,theMekongriverDeltawillbe40%flooded land,RedriverDelta,11%,andHoChiMinhCity,over 20%.Nearly10-12%ofnational universe of discoursewillbedirectly affectedandthelossofVietnamsgross domestic productisestimatedat10%. SourceVietnamInsituteofMeterologyHydrometeorology andEnvironment,MONRE,2010 ESTIMATED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO VIETNAM Accordingtotheclimatechangescenerio,ifseawater risesby1m,theMekongriverDeltawillbe40%flooded land,RedriverDelta,11%,andHoChiMinhCity,over 20%. Nearly10-12%ofnationalpopulationwillbedirectly affectedandthelossofVietnamsGDPisestimatedat10%. SourceVietnamInsituteofMeterologyHydrometeorology andEnvironment,MONRE,2010Increasing temperature would have impacts on productivity, increase the risk of diseases and change the plant structure, which would cause solid food insecurity. Scientists have said that if the temperature increases 1C, it will affect 25% of productivity, such as rice at 10%, corn 5-20%, (would be 60% if the temperature rises 4C). The boundary of tropical plants will change toward higher draw areas and northward. Increasing temperature affects the metabolism, growth rate, reproduction and seasonal crops of aquatic creatures, which are also prone to get diseases and be more exposed to toxic chemicals.Tropical slant (of low commercial value exclud ing tuna) would increase, while sub-tropical fish (high commercial value) would reduce. The atomic number 8 content in water reduces sharply at night, which makes many kinds of pewee and fish die or be stunted. II. 2. 2. Impacts on the energy sector When the temperature increases, energy consumption of some production sectors and domestic consumption also increases as they use more electrical devices fans, air-conditioners, industrial cooling systems, etc, as well as pumping water for plants.A study by the Energy Institute, the Ministry of patience and Trade shows that when the temperature in summer rises 1C, additional electricity charged from 9 am to 4pm increases higher than in other hours by 2. 2%/year, meaning electricity consumption would increase by 1%, especially in domestic, commercial and service sectors. When the temperature increases, the thermal cycle output of steam clean turbines reduces, which wastes fuel. When the temperature increases 1C, coal consumption of a 300 MW coal-fired thermal authority plant would increase 0. 5%, equivalent to 4,500 tons/year.For a gas-turbine reason plant, when the temperature increase 1C, generating capacity will reduce the productivity of a 250 MW gas-turbine by 0. 5%, which loses 7. 5 million kWh annually. Unusual storms and floods and rising sea level would also negatively affect the electricity operation, transmission and distribution systems, oil rigs, oil and gas pipelines to the mainland, and oil up-loading to storage tanks. Besides, due to unusual heavy storms, reservoirs of hydro-power stations could not effectively regulate water which increase risks to the lowland area.Rains and storms would cause landslides and destroy dykes and hydropower system, which would impact the environment on a large scale. II. 3. Impacts on other economic sectors Storms, heavy rains and floods which increase in intensity and frequency, would damage and destroy infrastructure and facilities and damage the natural and societal environment seriously, some quantifys even to the extent where it is unable to recover. Rising sea level would make some beaches disappear, while others would adjust by unfirm landward.It would affect cultural and historical sites, natural reserves and eco-tourism sites. Increasing temperature and shorter time of low temperature would reduce the attraction of mountain resorts, while the tourist season at the coast would last longer. (Source Climate change impacts on Vietnam). turn and industrial clusters/zones built in the plains would face higher risks of flooding and difficulties in rainfall drainage as well as flooding caused by rising river and sea levels.Extreme weather conditions and natural disaster increase would reduce the durability of materials, devices, facilities and infrastructure. II. 4. Impacts on society Climate change has direct and indirect influences on society and the communitys health. Unusual climate manifestation, prolonged cold and hot spells, in creasing or reducing temperature have negative influences on great deals health.Climate change also cause epidemics and other sources of diseases to occur and spread more widely such as symbol A influenza H1N1 virus, type A influenza H5N1 virus, diarrhoea, cholera, and other kinds of tropical diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Japanese encephalitis, dermatological diseases, sore look and poisoning. CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INFECTED PEOPLE Iftheglobaltemperatureincreasesfrombetween 35C,around50to80millionpeopleworldwide willfacetheriskofgettingmalariaeveryyear. Source announceofActionAid). OfficialstatisticsofaWHOsurveyin2000showed thatglobal heatwasthecauseofanadditional 155,000deathsinlow-incomecountries,duetoits impactonfoodproductivityandmalnutrition,diseases suchasdiarrhoea,malariaandflood tie inincidents. 85%ofthedeathswereunder-5childreninlowincome countries. SourceAsiaEuropeconferenceonSharingexperienceon respondingtoglobalclimatechangeanduphill diseases, Hanoi,2009CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES THE NUMBER OF DISEASE INFECTED PEOPLE Iftheglobaltemperatureincreasesfrombetween 35C,around50to80millionpeopleworldwide willfacetheriskofgettingmalariaeveryyear. (Source ReportofActionAid). OfficialstatisticsofaWHOsurveyin2000showed thatglobalwarmingwasthecauseofanadditional 155,000deathsinlow-incomecountries,duetoits impactonfoodproductivityandmalnutrition,diseases suchasdiarrhoea,malariaandfloodrelatedincidents. 85%ofthedeathswereunder-5childreninlowincome countries.SourceAsiaEuropeconferenceonSharingexperienceon respondingtoglobalclimatechangeandemergingdiseases, Hanoi,2009 Being aware of the climate change impacts, Vietnams Government has joined and ratified the UN Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol. After 2 years of implementation of the National Target Program on Climate Change Response, Vietnam has achieved initial illustrious results. Ministries, sectors and localities have been preparing their Action Plans to respon d to Climate change based on the premise of the National Action Plan.